What will affect the dollar in 2025
Posted: Mon Feb 17, 2025 5:54 am
A positive side effect of such a policy could be a replenishment of the American budget, since duties are additional income for it, and the high US national debt is another important problem that the presidential administration must solve.
"So the dollar's value against global currencies depends heavily on how radical Donald Trump and his administration are over the next four years on tariffs and trade wars. So far, the most likely scenario is that the dollar will be quite strong over that period," Meinhardt said.
Photo - © Adobe Stock
The founder of the investment company SharesPro Denis Astafyev listed the factors that will influence the dollar exchange rate in 2025.
Oil prices: Lower oil prices could weaken the ruble. Oil prices are expected to average around $60 a barrel.
Sanctions and restrictions. Strengthening existing taiwan mobile database sanctions or introducing new ones could create additional pressure on the Russian economy and the ruble.
Geopolitical and economic situation. The global geopolitical situation, changes in the policies of leading economies and the strengthening of the dollar in the international arena will influence the ruble exchange rate. For example, the growth of the dollar relative to other world currencies will also affect its position against the ruble.
Monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The decisions of the Central Bank, including changes in the key rate and other regulatory measures, will directly affect the exchange rate of the national currency.
"During 2025, we can expect the ruble to dollar exchange rate to be in the range of 90-120 rubles, and its fluctuations will depend on the factors listed. In the first quarter of the year, a short-term decline in the dollar exchange rate below 100 rubles is also possible," Astafyev believes.
"At the beginning of the year, the situation on the currency market is characterized by low trading activity after the New Year holidays. However, it is already possible to identify key factors influencing the dollar exchange rate in the first quarter: oil prices, the influence of the Bank of Russia and geopolitical risks," agrees Alexander Shneiderman, Head of Sales and Client Support at Alfa-Forex.
Positive dynamics of oil prices continue to support the ruble. If the oil price remains stable, this may limit the weakening of the ruble and keep the dollar exchange rate in the range of 94-105 rubles per dollar, he says.
The policy of the Bank of Russia, in particular the level of the key rate and currency interventions, will remain an important factor in stabilizing the exchange rate. The unstable situation on world markets and possible sanctions against Russian exports may weaken support for the ruble, the expert is sure.
"So the dollar's value against global currencies depends heavily on how radical Donald Trump and his administration are over the next four years on tariffs and trade wars. So far, the most likely scenario is that the dollar will be quite strong over that period," Meinhardt said.
Photo - © Adobe Stock
The founder of the investment company SharesPro Denis Astafyev listed the factors that will influence the dollar exchange rate in 2025.
Oil prices: Lower oil prices could weaken the ruble. Oil prices are expected to average around $60 a barrel.
Sanctions and restrictions. Strengthening existing taiwan mobile database sanctions or introducing new ones could create additional pressure on the Russian economy and the ruble.
Geopolitical and economic situation. The global geopolitical situation, changes in the policies of leading economies and the strengthening of the dollar in the international arena will influence the ruble exchange rate. For example, the growth of the dollar relative to other world currencies will also affect its position against the ruble.
Monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The decisions of the Central Bank, including changes in the key rate and other regulatory measures, will directly affect the exchange rate of the national currency.
"During 2025, we can expect the ruble to dollar exchange rate to be in the range of 90-120 rubles, and its fluctuations will depend on the factors listed. In the first quarter of the year, a short-term decline in the dollar exchange rate below 100 rubles is also possible," Astafyev believes.
"At the beginning of the year, the situation on the currency market is characterized by low trading activity after the New Year holidays. However, it is already possible to identify key factors influencing the dollar exchange rate in the first quarter: oil prices, the influence of the Bank of Russia and geopolitical risks," agrees Alexander Shneiderman, Head of Sales and Client Support at Alfa-Forex.
Positive dynamics of oil prices continue to support the ruble. If the oil price remains stable, this may limit the weakening of the ruble and keep the dollar exchange rate in the range of 94-105 rubles per dollar, he says.
The policy of the Bank of Russia, in particular the level of the key rate and currency interventions, will remain an important factor in stabilizing the exchange rate. The unstable situation on world markets and possible sanctions against Russian exports may weaken support for the ruble, the expert is sure.