The End of Moore's Law: It's Human's Move

[jrineakter]

Column – Beware of the presentation that uses Moore’s Law as a driving force to explain what awaits us. Beware of the trend watchers who extrapolate exponential lines to the next twenty years as if the biennial doubling of chip capacity continues unabated, our children will live to be 120 and will no longer need to get a driver’s license.


Beware of the airheads who insist that technology will continue to shrink and fall in price, the cliché preachers who claim that 'small is the new big'. They exist, and they get paid to spew this puny nonsense into the world.

Moore's law will soon no longer be valid
It was already known in the middle of last year: the end of the validity of Moore's law is in sight ; it will be in 2020. It is the international chip industry itself that reports this in the International Roadmap for Devices and Systems. And it is not only the halving of the number of chips per square centimeter that ceases to exist, the downward price movement has already stopped for some time.

Will the principle of singularity remain?
What now for the singularity movement ? John Markoff also wonders in an article on Edge.org . Uncrowned singularity king Ray Kurzweil predicted in 2005 that exponential azerbaijan telegram number list technological progress will lead to a situation – around 2045 – where we will reach 'singularity', a phase that heralds the beginning of the superiority of machine intelligence. Machines will by then be infinitely smarter than the entire collected humanity. Thanks to Silicon Valley, powered by Moore's law, among other things.

So if Moore drops out, will it really happen? In many actions, humans are still far superior to robots. We can do a lot with Siri, but not nearly what we would like. There are spectacular developments with driverless cars, there are also spectacular accidents. The big risk is not the rule (the almost perfect driverless car), the risk will soon be the exception (the participant in traffic who still drives himself, the demented lady who crosses the road 'huppakee').

What is left then?
So if the conclusion is that Moore's law will soon run its course, what will be left of all the trend lines?

So if the conclusion is that Moore's law will soon run its course, what will be left of all the trend lines?”

The IT industry is moving to the Cambrian phase
Wall Street Journal journalist Irving Wladawsky suggests that the IT industry has entered its Cambrian phase. I didn't know it, the Cambrian phase; we go back a long way in time, some 550 million years.

The Cambrian geological period meant a fundamental change on planet Earth. Organisms were simple, they consisted of individual cells and some cells connected to each other in colonies, think of sponges. After a few million years, evolution decided that the cell as the smallest organ had been fully developed and that progress could only occur if new connections were made by the cells. The years from then on would become known as the 'Cambrian explosion'; an interesting phase. The emergence of new forms of life would be caused by the making of new connections between the existing, fully evolved cells.